- Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another has surged to the front of the Best Picture race after a successful theatrical release.
- Dwayne Johnson’s A24 film, The Smashing Machine, suffered a disappointing box office debut, but insiders believe its Oscar chances remain strong.
- The Best Actress category is in flux, with Amanda Seyfried’s performance in The Testament of Ann Lee now a major contender after the film secured a distributor.
- Daniel Day-Lewis’s return to the screen in Anemone is being praised, though the film itself has received mixed reviews at the New York Film Festival.
October Heats Up the Oscar Race
As the dust settles from a frantic September film festival season, the landscape for the 2026 Academy Awards is becoming clearer, and not without its share of surprises. According to the latest Feinberg Forecast, the race has been significantly reshaped by recent premieres and box office results, creating new frontrunners and urgent questions for awards strategists.
A New Frontrunner Emerges
Dominating the conversation is Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. Following its theatrical release, the Warner Bros. film has garnered rave reviews, sitting at 95 percent on Rotten Tomatoes and crossing the $100 million mark worldwide. This powerful debut has propelled it into the top spot for the Best Picture race, reportedly pulling slightly ahead of previous favorites like Hamnet, Sinners, and Sentimental Value.
Box Office Bombs vs. Academy Buzz
In a shocking turn of events, A24’s The Smashing Machine, starring Dwayne Johnson, stumbled at the box office with a meager $6 million debut. However, the film is far from out of the race. A recent, well-attended Academy screening in Los Angeles suggests that Oscar buzz for Johnson and co-star Emily Blunt remains strong among voters, proving that commercial success isn’t everything.
Key Festival Premieres and Category Shake-Ups
The New York Film Festival also introduced new dynamics. While Daniel Day-Lewis’s return in Anemone was lauded, the film itself received a lukewarm reception. Meanwhile, the Best Actress category has been thrown into disarray now that The Testament of Ann Lee, starring Amanda Seyfried, has secured powerhouse Searchlight as its distributor. All eyes are now on Warner Bros. to see if they campaign One Battle After Another‘s breakout star, Chase Infiniti, for Best Actress or Supporting, a decision that could dramatically alter both categories.
Image Referance: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/2026-oscars-race-leading-films-performances/