- Jessie Buckley is the frontrunner after Critics Choice and Golden Globe wins.
- Renate Reinsve and Rose Byrne look locked in; Emma Stone and newcomer Chase Infiniti round out the predicted five.
- Kate Hudson, Jennifer Lawrence and Amanda Seyfried are strong threats for a nomination push.
Why motherhood shaped the Best Actress race
The 2025 season produced a wave of performances centered on motherhood, and that theme dominates the Best Actress conversation. Critics groups and major precursors — Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG — have highlighted actors who took deep, often gritty turns as mothers or characters wrestling with maternal themes. That trend has helped consolidate a shortlist of likely nominees heading into Oscar nomination voting.
Predicted nominees (Final Five)
- Jessie Buckley — Hamnet (Focus Features)
- Renate Reinsve — Sentimental Value (NEON)
- Rose Byrne — If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)
- Emma Stone — Bugonia (Focus Features)
- Chase Infiniti — One Battle After Another (Warner Bros)
Why these five?
Jessie Buckley arrives as the betting favorite after wins from Critics Choice and the Golden Globes, plus a SAG nomination and a BAFTA longlist mention. Renate Reinsve’s strong European awards showing — including a recent European Film Awards win — has kept her firmly in contention despite missing a SAG nod. Rose Byrne’s Globe win (in the comedy category) and her awards-season momentum make her a dependable pick.
Emma Stone’s performance in Bugonia has regained steam with Globe and SAG recognition, while newcomer Chase Infiniti’s season has seen major precursor nods that position them as a legitimate nominee from a widely expected Best Picture contender.
Major contenders and longshots
Kate Hudson’s Song Sung Blue has become a late push candidate. Hudson missed some precursors but earned Globe and SAG attention and a BAFTA longlist spot, making her a plausible addition to the final five if momentum continues before nominations.
Other names to watch: Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good), and Tessa Thompson (Hedda). Each has awards attention, and any late awards-season swing could alter the final lineup.
What to expect next
With nominations approaching, look for the BAFTA longlist and final precursor awards to clarify front-runners. Voter sentiment around thematic performances — especially those exploring motherhood — will likely determine who makes the official Oscar ballot. Expect a tight race where late-season campaigning and industry screenings could tip the balance.
Follow awards coverage for updates as nomination announcements near.
Image Referance: https://awardswatch.com/final-2026-oscar-predictions-best-actress/