- Amazon paid $40 million for the Melania Trump documentary and is spending roughly $35 million more to open it globally.
- National Research Group forecasts a U.S./Canada opening near $5 million across about 1,400–1,500 theaters.
- Amazon plans premieres in 27 countries, including a Kennedy Center event, despite limited box-office upside.
- Presales appear polarized along red/blue lines; Amazon’s internal projections vary widely.
Amazon pushes Melania Trump doc despite narrow audience
Amazon MGM Studios paid $40 million for a Brett Ratner-directed documentary about Melania Trump that the first lady executive produced. The studio is also spending an estimated $35 million to launch the film in about 27 countries, according to industry reporting.
Box-office forecast: limited U.S. opening
National Research Group issued a forecast projecting roughly $5 million in U.S. and Canadian ticket sales for the film’s opening weekend (around January 30), with screenings in approximately 1,400 to 1,500 theaters. Reports indicate Amazon’s own internal estimates are inconsistent, and presale patterns show clear political splits, skewing by party lines.
Global rollout and high-profile premieres
Despite the modest ceiling in North America, Amazon is investing heavily in a global rollout. The studio plans a splashy Kennedy Center premiere attended by senior executives and will release the film in multiple international markets. Industry observers note the marketing and distribution spend is large relative to the expected returns.
Production and creative team
The documentary is directed by Brett Ratner and lists Melania Trump among its executive producers. Amazon MGM Studios acquired the project in a deal that drew attention for its size and the political prominence of its subject.
Market dynamics and polarized demand
Early sales data suggest the film’s audience is highly segmented. Presales are tracking along red/blue partisan lines, which could concentrate turnout in certain regions while leaving other markets sparse. That polarization helps explain why a substantial marketing and distribution push may still yield a relatively small aggregate box office.
What to watch this weekend
Box-office observers will be watching actual ticket receipts against NRG’s forecast and Amazon’s own expectations. The film’s international performance and premium events, like the Kennedy Center premiere, will factor into the studio’s assessment of whether the sizable upfront investment can be justified.
Follow updates from Amazon MGM Studios and box-office trackers for real-time results when the Melania Trump documentary opens.
Image Referance: https://puck.news/will-the-melania-trump-movie-actually-make-money/